Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.016713 0.018918 0.021308 0.024091 0.027242 0.030701 0.034789
2025-09-07 0.013392 0.016465 0.020079 0.024647 0.030272 0.036978 0.045595
2025-09-14 0.010972 0.014272 0.018378 0.023866 0.031022 0.040052 0.052343
2025-09-21 0.009449 0.012870 0.017326 0.023562 0.032085 0.043353 0.059433
2025-09-28 0.008140 0.011537 0.016139 0.022842 0.032382 0.045516 0.065045
2025-10-05 0.007606 0.011173 0.016181 0.023743 0.034908 0.050849 0.075455
2025-10-12 0.007064 0.010722 0.016027 0.024303 0.036940 0.055595 0.085389
2025-10-19 0.006620 0.010355 0.015938 0.024918 0.039063 0.060600 0.096107
2025-10-26 0.006053 0.009739 0.015404 0.024775 0.039972 0.063788 0.104230
2025-11-02 0.005595 0.009243 0.014999 0.024780 0.041080 0.067332 0.113175
2025-11-09 0.005100 0.008638 0.014362 0.024334 0.041390 0.069574 0.120114
2025-11-16 0.004803 0.008331 0.014178 0.024615 0.042913 0.073911 0.130931
2025-11-23 0.004440 0.007888 0.013739 0.024439 0.043671 0.077067 0.140085
2025-11-30 0.004234 0.007701 0.013723 0.025000 0.045770 0.082730 0.154250
2025-12-07 0.003837 0.007136 0.012992 0.024207 0.045345 0.083835 0.160102
2025-12-14 0.003554 0.006751 0.012550 0.023899 0.045772 0.086496 0.169072
2025-12-21 0.003241 0.006283 0.011915 0.023169 0.045326 0.087474 0.174845
2025-12-28 0.003169 0.006270 0.012129 0.024082 0.048125 0.094848 0.193867
2026-01-04 0.003058 0.006170 0.012168 0.024650 0.050282 0.101129 0.211219
2026-01-11 0.002960 0.006089 0.012234 0.025275 0.052596 0.107898 0.230154
2026-01-18 0.002786 0.005836 0.011937 0.025130 0.053307 0.111455 0.242601
2026-01-25 0.002640 0.005631 0.011722 0.025135 0.054327 0.115719 0.256923
2026-02-01 0.002462 0.005342 0.011309 0.024683 0.054326 0.117815 0.266639